"No phone, no lights no motor cars,
Not a single luxury,
Like Robinson Crusoe,
As primitive as can be."
-the ballad of Gilligan's Island, G. Wyle/S. Schwartz. source: http://www.lyricsondemand.com/tvthemes/gilligansislandlyrics.html
Do you remember Y2K?
That
"thing" commonly known as the Millennial Bug that was supposed to
happen when the calendar changed from 1999 to the New Melania. What
would happen when computer systems that were designed around a two digit
date encountered the year 2000? Who knew? Computers were going to stop
working, banks would loose all your money, and business systems
throughout the globe would cease to function.
Amid the hype there was preparedness
Information
Technology exploded into a fury of activity that lasted for years and
spent billions of dollars. The Y2K threat was taken seriously even
though the impact could only be estimated. Governments and small
businesses alike mobilized ahead of the threat to reinforce computer
systems and upgrade technology. Fearing some form of cataclysmic event,
civilians also took precautions and readied themselves for the December
31 deadline.
And nothing happened. Did nothing happen
because nothing was ever going to happen; or, did nothing happen because
there was a unified preparedness effort?
Thinking of
the Y2K situation made me think about how we would respond to a threat
on our technology systems and internet today. We're in a far different
world today than we were in 1999. The use of technology has increased
exponentially in the last few years and certainly over the last decade.
Today, automated
systems control everything from finance to water treatment facilities.
We're also in a far different world concerning preparedness. How would
we do with a Y2K threat today?
It's not just business
We're
used to swiping a card rather than paying in cash for everything from
fast food to fuel. We've become accustomed to (if not demanding) instant
access to our information and entertainment and we're accessing that
content on the go via Smartphones, tablets, and other handheld devices.
We rely on internet communication for telephone, email, and other
communication.
Is there a threat on the horizon?
Would
we embrace preparedness efforts with the same level of enthusiasm today
as we did in 1999? Would we endorse the expenditures in terms of time
and money to make preemptive changes? If today's climate of complacency
is any indication...we'd do nothing until the PlayStation stopped
working or the iPhone wouldn't connect...we'd be too late. This
Nike spoof of Y2K just might capture the level of awareness. Then what?
"When nothing happens, nothing happens...nobody wants to pay when nothing happens."
Today's Threats
Y2K
came with substantial warning time. Time to analyze, harden, prepare.
Information technology professionals had about two years foresight to
begin working on the issues once the Y2K threat potential was
identified.
Would we have any Y2K-style warning today? Would we take the warning seriously?
Magnify
the Y2K threat beyond the inconvenience of losing your email and social
media for a few days. Computer viruses, cyber attack, infrastructure
failure, and the potential of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) top the list
of threats. These critical threats will almost certainly come without
warning; turning us back to analog for weeks if not months or years. We
recently discussed the
issue and potentials of a cyber attack
and our lack of ability to detect it until long after it has happened.
With all things considered, the biggest threat we may face will be our
own indifference to the potential. Remember,
it can't happen here. Can it?
How far have we come since 1999? View the video
Y2K: Tensions in the Last Days of the 1900's and answer that yourself.
Commerce, Communication, Infrastructure
Damage
to communications systems and commerce may be immediately felt by
government and civilian populations. Managing life without our cellular
communications, chat, text messages, FaceTime, and social media may be
difficult...extraordinarily difficult. The real punch of a Y2K/cyber
attack will be rendering our critical infrastructure useless. Rather
than
crippling a water pump
in a processing station, lets turn off the United States power grid. No
access to your money, no use of credit/debit cards. Lack power for a
prolonged period of time would begin a cascade of system failures that
would include loss of domestic water and fuel supplies. Civil unrest and
potential for violence should be considered. Suddenly, $4.00/gallon gas
seems like a bargain. How about water for only $10.00/gallon...cash
only.
No Panic, Please
The intent of this post is raise awareness and assess threats. Cyber threat is not a
Cassandra Paradox, it is a reality. What to do? Simple. Acknowledge the threat potentials and employ your
standard preparedness strategy...and don't, repeat don't, take anything you see on
Doomsday Preppers seriously...that's a topic of another post.